Tommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazCanada Masters Quarter-final

Canada Masters · ATP · Quarter-final
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 August 2023
hard
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Paul T.
6-3 4-6 6-3
Alcaraz C.
Paul T.
6462
Alcaraz C.
3631

Tommy Paul defeated Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 4-6 6-3 in the Canada Masters quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending last year's round of 32. Tommy Paul narrowed the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

16
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-4 7-5
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(7)
2024-07-01WimbledonQFgrassCarlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023-08-14Cincinnati MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3
2023-03-20Miami MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardTommy Paul6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Alcaraz C.
71
Serve
74
54
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
57%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Even
39%
42%
Break points saved·Even
64%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.2
5.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
98
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Clear edge
87
99
Deciding sets·Even
98
100
Tiebreaks·Even
96
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
0.9Hard Elo 1881
Surface ELO
9.1+207 Hard Elo edge
0.7Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
9.3Overall Elo 2162
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.5
Surface form
9.0
0.0
Win streak
10.015-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.2
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
7.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Paul T.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%