Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul — London Final
USA
Cerundolo F.
Francisco Cerundolo faces Tommy Paul in the London final on grass. Francisco Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #27, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Paul T. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Tommy Paul brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 59), Francisco Cerundolo the stronger return game (Return Rating 82).
- Head-to-head: Francisco Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 5–2, 2–1 on grass. Last met at Miami Masters 2025.
- Last match: Francisco Cerundolo dropped the opening set before beating Brandon Nakashima 6–7 6–3 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCerundolo F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Paul T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
5–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | R32 | hard | Francisco Cerundolo | 6-2 7-6(4) |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Francisco Cerundolo | 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | R32 | clay | Francisco Cerundolo | 6-7(7) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | R32 | hard | Tommy Paul | 7-6(2) 6-7(2) 6-3 |
| 2023-06-26 | Eastbourne | F | grass | Francisco Cerundolo | 6-4 1-6 6-4 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | R32 | grass | Francisco Cerundolo | 7-6(2) 4-6 6-4 |
| 2022-06-20 | Eastbourne | R32 | grass | Tommy Paul | 4-6 7-6(2) 6-4 |