Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli — Cincinnati Quarter-final

Cincinnati · ATP · Quarter-final
Tommy Paul
USA18
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 3rd on
Flavio Cobolli
ITA7
Flavio Cobolli
#10ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLWWWW
Paul T.
6-2 3-6 4-6
Cobolli F.
Paul T.
6341
Cobolli F.
2662

Flavio Cobolli defeated Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati tournament, coming back from a set down to win 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. The match saw Cobolli record 10 aces and 1 double fault, while Paul had 12 aces and 3 double faults. Both players converted 2 service breaks each, with Cobolli winning 69% of his first serves and Paul winning 74%.

Around the match

  • “I don't think today was the perfect match by any means. I made a lot of unforced errors I didn't want to make, and maybe suffered a little bit of lapses in focus. But all stuff I can take into the next match now.”

    Paul T.Yahoo Sports ↗

  • “I played a really ugly game there at 3-2 to get broke in the third. But it was nice to get right back, and it's not always easy to, after playing an ugly game like that, lock back in.”

    Paul T.Yahoo Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersR64hardFlavio Cobolli6-2 4-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
Paul T.Cobolli F.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
62%
62%
Aces / match·Even
6.9
6.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paul T.Cobolli F.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
90
75
Break points saved·Even
97
95
Break points won·Dominant
88
38
Deciding sets·Even
98
99
Tiebreaks·Even
90
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Paul T.65%
Cobolli F.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Paul T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paul T.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Cobolli F.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+72 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1810
5.7Overall Elo 1948
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1896
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paul T.Cobolli F.
Freshness·Even
46
47

Paul T.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 120 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 119 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw