Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur FilsCincinnati Semi-final

Cincinnati · ATP · Semi-final
#6ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 22 August 2026 ·
hard
P&G STADIUM COURT · 2nd on
#11ATP
2001ELO
1930Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$7.9MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWL
Cobolli F.
3-6 4-6
Fils A.
Cobolli F.
340
Fils A.
662

Arthur Fils advanced to the Cincinnati semifinals with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Flavio Cobolli. Fils hit 6 aces to Cobolli's 2 and converted 75% of his break points, compared to Cobolli's 50%. Fils won 82% of his first-serve points to Cobolli's 73%, and secured 3 service breaks to Cobolli's 1.

Around the match

  • A sweet with chocolate makes me happy. I've tried it in doubles so why not singles?

    Cobolli F.Al Jazeera
  • My shape is 100 percent. I may play golf tomorrow on a day off to relax but I will be ready to fight again.

    Cobolli F.Flashscore.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Arthur Fils closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersR32clayArthur Fils6-2 6-4
2023-11-27NextGen FinalsRRhardArthur Fils4-1 4-2 4-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
57%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
4.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
75
81
Break points saved·Even
95
96
Break points won·Clear edge
38
54
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Cobolli F.28%
Fils A.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fils A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1810
Surface ELO
6.5+120 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1896
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 2001
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
78

Cobolli F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Fils A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw