Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda — London Round of 32

London · ATP · Round of 32

USA

Tommy Paul

#28ATP

1935ELO

1765Grass ELO

$1.2MYTD

$14MCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWLWWWWLW

—

Sets

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 13:00

grass

ANDY MURRAY ARENA · 2nd on

USALL

Zachary Svajda

#62ATP

1702ELO

1693Grass ELO

$289kYTD

$1.6MCAREER

23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWWLLLL

Paul T.

Svajda Z.

Tommy Paul faces Zachary Svajda in the London round of 32 on grass. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — ranked #28, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Paul T.78%

Svajda Z.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Paul T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Tommy Paul comes in with 16 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Zachary Svajda's 1 and 63.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Tommy Paul has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 93 vs 68).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Paul T.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Svajda Z.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.9+72 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.1Grass Elo 1693

7.9Overall Elo 1935

ELO gap

2.1Overall Elo 1702

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.67 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.98 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Paul T.Stable

Svajda Z.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season

Paul T.Svajda Z.

1st serve in·Even

63%

60%

1st serve points won·Even

76%

74%

2nd serve points won·Even

56%

53%

Service points won·Even

69%

66%

Return points won·Even

37%

Break points saved·Even

62%

66%

Aces / match·Even

6.9

6.4

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.4

1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Paul T.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Svajda Z.

Svajda Z.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Paul T.Svajda Z.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Paul T.Svajda Z.

Freshness·Clear edge

100

Paul T.: 16 days rest · Svajda Z.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on ANDY MURRAY ARENA · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

1Van De Zandschulp B. v Wendelken H.11:30
2Paul T. v Svajda Z.This match
3Pinnington Jones J. v Shapovalov D.14:30
4Mpetshi Perricard G. v Moutet C.16:00

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

20°CDrizzle

Wind 15 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.