Cameron Norrie vs Alex De Minaur — Montreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
Cameron Norrie
GBR
Cameron Norrie
#37ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Alex De Minaur
AUS3
Alex De Minaur
#7ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWWLW
Norrie C.
vs
De Minaur A.

Cameron Norrie faces Alex De Minaur in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #7, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Cameron Norrie has won 4 of their 7 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Norrie C.28%
De Minaur A.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Minaur A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
18 common opponents · Norrie C. 8–12 · De Minaur A. 13–8
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Norrie C.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
De Minaur A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1789
Surface ELO
6.8+146 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1961
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 38 matches

Statistics

This season
Norrie C.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
66%
69%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.1
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Norrie C.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Norrie C.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Norrie C.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
95
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Clear edge
84
97
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
78
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Norrie C.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Clear edge
60
74

Norrie C.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 105 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

4–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAlex De Minaur7-6 2-6 6-2
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR32hardCameron Norrie6-4 6-4
2024-01-01United CupRRhardCameron Norrie6-4 2-6 7-6
2023-08-07Canada MastersR64hardAlex De Minaur7-5 6-4
2023-01-02United CupRRhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-3
2022-12-29United CupRRhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-3
2022-04-18BarcelonaQFclayAlex De Minaur6-3 5-7 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Draw