Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersSemi-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 16:30STADIUM COURT · Next on

Alexander Zverev(1)ATP #2 · GER75%

VSClear favourite · Zverev A.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina(25)ATP #26 · ESP25%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Zverev A.

75%25%

Clear edge for Zverev A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Zverev A.7.7/10

Dominant favourite

Davidovich Fokina A.6.1/10

Even match

Why

Surface+199 Hard Elo edgeSupports Zverev A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2100Supports Zverev A.

Head-to-headLeads 4–1 on hardSupports Zverev A.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Davidovich Fokina A.

Opponent formOpponent hot: 8 of last 10Against the prediction · Davidovich Fokina A.

ELO2 330

Hard ELO2 150

Last 108–2

Age29

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $68.6M2026 $9.0M

ELO2 099

Hard ELO1 932

Last 108–2

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.3M2026 $1.4M

Alexander Zverev faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai Masters semi-final on hard. Alexander Zverev holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alexander Zverev 156 games in 14 days, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86.
Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head 6–1, 4–1 on hard. Last met at Paris Masters 2025.
Last match: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advanced when Arthur Gea retired.

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months

All 12 opponents →

Zverev A. and Davidovich Fokina A. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Zverev A. went 16–3 (84%) against them, Davidovich Fokina A. 8–6 (57%). Zverev A. came out better against 3 of 10 comparable opponents, Davidovich Fokina A. against 1.

16–384%Zverev A. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents8–657%Davidovich Fokina A. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

40–17Sets19–16

328–258Games177–175

7–6Tiebreaks7–4

5–1Deciding sets4–3

vs Tiafoe F.#8W6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardW7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(6)Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Mensik J.#15W6-4 6-7 6-3Madrid Masters · clayW6-2 4-6 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Tien L.#16W6-3 6-7 6-1 7-6Australian Open · hardL6-4 1-6 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hard

Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Paul T.#17L6-4 6-7(6) 4-6Cincinnati · hardL3-6London · grass
vs Hurkacz H.#34L3-6 4-6United Cup · hardW6-4 7-6(7)Chengdu · hard
vs Norrie C.#40W3-6 6-3 6-3Cincinnati · hardW6-2London · grass
vs Berrettini M.#46W6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardL6-1 6-7(1) 4-6Tokyo · hard
vs Halys Q.#48W7-6 7-6Miami Masters · hardL6-7 4-6Miami Masters · hard
vs Garin C.#131W4-6 6-4 7-5Monte Carlo Masters · clayW7-6 6-4Rome Masters · clay
vs Muller A.#133W6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4Australian Open · hardW6-1 7-5Chengdu · hard
vs Auger-Aliassime F.#6Hard to compareL4-6 6-7Tour Finals · hardL7-6 6-7 3-6 7-6 1-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Royer V.#105Hard to compareW6-1 6-3 7-6Wimbledon · grassW4-6 6-1 6-4Paris Masters · hard

Head-to-head

7 meetings · Zverev A. leads 6–1

Full H2H →

Hard: Zverev A. leads 4–1 · Clay: Zverev A. leads 2–0

Zverev A.October 2025Paris MastersHard6-2 6-4
Zverev A.April 2025Madrid MastersClay2-6 7-6 7-6
Zverev A.September 2023BeijingHard6-7 6-2 6-1
Davidovich Fokina A.August 2023Canada MastersHard6-1 6-2
Zverev A.May 2021Roland GarrosClay6-4 6-1 6-1

Evidence

Zverev A.Davidovich Fokina A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate82% (62–14)66% (31–16)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO23302099

Hard-court ELO21501932

Serve vs returnLast 74 vs 47 matches

1st-serve points won77%71%

Return points won37%36%

Aces / match10.44.6

ClutchLast 74 vs 47 matches

Break points saved61%67%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · Next on · Not before 16:30

1This match: Zverev A. v Davidovich Fokina A.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · 16:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast26°C · Partly cloudy

Wind18 km/h

Humidity60%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Zverev A.Davidovich Fokina A.

1Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days4

111Games · 7 days86

6Matches · 14 days4

156Games · 14 days86

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Shanghai Masters Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/fokina-vs-zverev-shanghai-masters-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).