Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR32HardSun 11 Oct · 12:00STADIUM COURT · After 1 match

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina(25)ATP #26 · ESP41%

VSSlight edge · Tiafoe F.

Frances Tiafoe(7)ATP #8 · USA59%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Tiafoe F.

41%59%

Tiafoe F. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Davidovich Fokina A.6.7/10

Slight advantage

Tiafoe F.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+19 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tiafoe F.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1918Supports Tiafoe F.

Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on hardSupports Tiafoe F.

This eventReached the R32 here last yearInformative

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Tiafoe F.

ELO2 064

Hard ELO1 893

Last 107–3

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.3M2026 $1.4M

ELO2 146

Hard ELO1 995

Last 107–3

Age28

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $18.7M2026 $2.8M

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Frances Tiafoe in the Shanghai Masters round of 32 on hard. Frances Tiafoe is the paper favourite — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 64 — but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on hard to Frances Tiafoe's 4 of 6.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 137 games in 14 days, Frances Tiafoe 61.
Form trend: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Frances Tiafoe's has cooled.
Last match: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina dropped just 4 games past Jenson Brooksby.

Common opponents

7 shared · last 12 months

All 7 opponents →

Davidovich Fokina A. and Tiafoe F. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Davidovich Fokina A. went 4–3 (57%) against them, Tiafoe F. 7–1 (88%). Tiafoe F. came out better against 2 of 7 comparable opponents, Davidovich Fokina A. against 0.

4–357%Davidovich Fokina A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents7–188%Tiafoe F. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

11–8Sets13–5

97–94Games99–81

4–2Tiebreaks3–0

1–2Deciding sets2–0

vs Zverev A.#2L2-6 4-6Paris Masters · hardL3-6 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Auger-Aliassime F.#6L7-6 6-7 3-6 7-6 1-6Wimbledon · grassW3-6 6-3Halle · grass
vs Mensik J.#15W6-2 4-6 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hardW7-6 4-6 7-6Miami Masters · hard

Show 4 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Tien L.#16L6-4 1-6 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-4 4-6 6-4Cincinnati · hard
vs Hurkacz H.#34W6-4 7-6(7)Chengdu · hardW6-4 6-4Roland Garros · clay
vs Brooksby J.#102W6-1 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardW6-4 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Cazaux A.#208W7-6 6-4Paris Masters · hardW7-6 6-1Miami Masters · hard

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Tiafoe F. leads 3–1

Full H2H →

Hard: Tiafoe F. leads 2–1 · Clay: Tiafoe F. leads 1–0

Tiafoe F.March 2025Miami MastersHard7-5 7-6
Davidovich Fokina A.February 2025AcapulcoHard6-3 6-7 6-3
Tiafoe F.August 2024Cincinnati MastersHard6-3 7-6
Tiafoe F.April 2022EstorilClay7-6 5-7 7-5

Evidence

Davidovich Fokina A.Tiafoe F.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–37–3

Season win rate64% (28–16)71% (44–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20642146

Hard-court ELO18931995

Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 60 matches

1st-serve points won71%75%

Return points won37%36%

Aces / match4.96.5

ClutchLast 39 vs 60 matches

Break points saved66%67%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

1Hurkacz H. v Zhou Y.Followed by
2This match: Davidovich Fokina A. v Tiafoe F.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · 12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast25°C · Partly cloudy

Wind9 km/h

Humidity55%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Davidovich Fokina A.Tiafoe F.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days1

16Games · 7 days20

6Matches · 14 days3

137Games · 14 days61

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe — Shanghai Masters Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-11/fokina-vs-tiafoe-shanghai-masters-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 11 October 2026).