Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaWimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
#4ATP
1958ELO
1789Grass ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWWL
3 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 2nd on
#27ATP
1893ELO
1782Grass ELO
$1.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Auger Aliassime F.
6-7 7-6 6-3 6-7 6-1
Davidovich Fokina A.
Auger Aliassime F.
676663
Davidovich Fokina A.
763712

Felix Auger Aliassime defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon. The match lasted five sets, with Auger Aliassime ultimately prevailing 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1. The win advanced Auger Aliassime in the tournament.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64hardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-7 6-7 6-4 6-1 6-3
2023-02-20DohaQFhardFelix Auger Aliassime6-4 7-6
2022-05-09Rome MastersR32clayFelix Auger Aliassime4-6 7-6 6-2
2022-01-17Australian OpenR64hardFelix Auger Aliassime7-6 6-7 7-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
69%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
56%
Service points won·Even
70%
66%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.4
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
75
87
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Dominant
31
94
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
98
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Auger Aliassime F.72%
Davidovich Fokina A.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Auger Aliassime F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+72 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1717
6.2Overall Elo 1958
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1863
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.47 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.6Won 60% in United Kingdom (25)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
79

Auger Aliassime F.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw