Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
Felix Auger Aliassime
CAN
Felix Auger Aliassime
#4ATP
1958ELO
1789Grass ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ESP
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#23ATP
1863ELO
1717Grass ELO
$926kYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWLWW
Auger Aliassime F.
vs
Davidovich Fokina A.

Felix Auger Aliassime faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Felix Auger Aliassime is the paper favourite — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 64 — but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on grass to Felix Auger Aliassime's 6.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC
Auger Aliassime F.73%
Davidovich Fokina A.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Auger Aliassime F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Auger Aliassime F.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Davidovich Fokina A.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+72 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1717
6.2Overall Elo 1958
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1863
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.47 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
5.9Won 65% in GBR (20)
Country comfort
5.3Won 55% in GBR (22)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Auger Aliassime F.Stable
Davidovich Fokina A.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Auger Aliassime F.Davidovich Fokina A.
1st serve in·Even
68%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
70%
66%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Even
65%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.7
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Auger Aliassime F.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Davidovich Fokina A.

Davidovich Fokina A.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Auger Aliassime F.Davidovich Fokina A.
Clutch Rating·Even
84
87
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
50
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
91
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Auger Aliassime F.Davidovich Fokina A.
Freshness·Clear edge
71
59

Auger Aliassime F.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 109 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64hardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-7(7) 6-7(5) 6-4 6-1 6-3
2023-02-20DohaQFhardFelix Auger Aliassime6-4 7-6(5)
2022-05-09Rome MastersR32clayFelix Auger Aliassime4-6 7-6(2) 6-2
2022-01-17Australian OpenR64hardFelix Auger Aliassime7-6(4) 6-7(4) 7-6(5) 7-6(4)
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
Khachanov K.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
Giron M.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
Auger Aliassime F.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.
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