Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Mallorca Semi-final
Marozsan F.
Fabian Marozsan faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Mallorca semi-final on grass. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the paper favourite — ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage — but Fabian Marozsan rides a 3-match win streak. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Davidovich Fokina A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina dropped just 6 games past Grigor Dimitrov.
- Fatigue load: Fabian Marozsan carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Dubai 2024.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMarozsan F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-26 | Dubai | R32 | hard | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-3 4-6 6-1 |