Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Shanghai Masters Round of 16

Shanghai MastersR16HardTue 13 Oct · ~19:30STADIUM COURT · After 3 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Hurkacz H.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Davidovich Fokina A.7.4/10
Dominant favourite
Why
Surface+116 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Davidovich Fokina A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1893Against the prediction · Davidovich Fokina A.
Recent run3-match win streakSupports Hurkacz H.
Head-to-headLeads 4–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Davidovich Fokina A.
This eventReached the R32 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Davidovich Fokina A.
ELO2 085
Hard ELO1 930
Last 108–2
Age29
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.6M2026 $1.8M
ELO2 079
Hard ELO1 908
Last 107–3
Age27
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $12.3M2026 $1.4M

Hubert Hurkacz faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai Masters round of 16 on hard. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the paper favourite — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending last year's round of 32 — but Hubert Hurkacz rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months
All 11 opponents →

Hurkacz H. and Davidovich Fokina A. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Hurkacz H. went 8–5 (62%) against them, Davidovich Fokina A. 7–6 (54%). Results against comparable opponents are close (5 : 3 better-results split).

8–562%Hurkacz H. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents7–654%Davidovich Fokina A. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
21–13Sets18–15
180–151Games160–157
3–1Tiebreaks4–2
2–1Deciding sets3–1
Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

7 meetings · Davidovich Fokina A. leads 5–2
Full H2H →
25

Hard: Davidovich Fokina A. leads 4–1 · Grass: Davidovich Fokina A. leads 1–0 · Clay: Hurkacz H. leads 1–0

Evidence

Hurkacz H.Davidovich Fokina A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate64% (36–20)64% (29–16) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2085 (ahead)2079
Hard-court ELO1930 (ahead)1908
Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)71%
Return points won35%37% (ahead)
Aces / match14.0 (ahead)5.0
ClutchLast 55 vs 40 matches
Break points saved71% (ahead)66%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 3 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · ~19:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast22°C · Mainly clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity65%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Hurkacz H.Davidovich Fokina A.
1Days since last match1
4Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
82Games · 7 days52 — fresher
9Matches · 14 days5 — fresher
222Games · 14 days134 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Shanghai Masters Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/fokina-vs-hurkacz-shanghai-masters-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).