Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersQuarter-finalHardThu 15 Oct · 14:30STADIUM COURT · Next on

Arthur GeaATP #56 · FRA42%

VSSlight edge · Davidovich Fokina A.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina(25)ATP #26 · ESP58%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Davidovich Fokina A.

42%58%

Davidovich Fokina A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Gea A.6.0/10

Even match

Davidovich Fokina A.7.8/10

Dominant favourite

Why

Surface+233 Hard Elo edgeSupports Davidovich Fokina A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1893Supports Davidovich Fokina A.

Recent run4-match win streakInformative

This eventReached the R32 here last yearSupports Davidovich Fokina A.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 981

Hard ELO1 887

Last 108–2

Age21

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $801K2026 $549K

ELO2 091

Hard ELO1 921

Last 108–2

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.3M2026 $1.4M

Arthur Gea faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai Masters quarter-final on hard. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina holds the paper edge — ranked #26, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Arthur Gea 156 games in 14 days, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 111.
Under pressure: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 90 vs Arthur Gea's 38).
Last match: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina dropped the opening set before beating Hubert Hurkacz 1–6 6–3 7–6.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Gea A. and Davidovich Fokina A. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Gea A. went 3–1 (75%) against them, Davidovich Fokina A. 6–0 (100%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).

3–175%Gea A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents6–0100%Davidovich Fokina A. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

9–5Sets13–2

74–62Games87–65

2–1Tiebreaks4–0

1–1Deciding sets2–0

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Mensik J.#15W7-6(4) 6-4Shanghai Masters · hardW6-2 4-6 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Hurkacz H.#34L6-7(5) 7-6(5) 2-6Beijing · hardW6-4 7-6(7)Chengdu · hard
vs Cerundolo J.#55W6-3 2-6 3-6 6-3 6-1US Open · hardW6-4 6-4Chengdu · hard

Show 1 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Svajda Z.#82W5-7 6-3 6-2 6-2US Open · hardW7-6 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gea A.Davidovich Fokina A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate73% (49–18)65% (30–16)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19812091

Hard-court ELO18871921

Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 41 matches

1st-serve points won75%71%

Return points won40%36%

Aces / match6.55.0

ClutchLast 55 vs 41 matches

Break points saved64%67%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · Next on · Not before 14:30

1This match: Gea A. v Davidovich Fokina A.This match
2Zverev A. v De Minaur A.Not before 18:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · 14:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast23°C · Overcast

Wind13 km/h

Humidity57%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Gea A.Davidovich Fokina A.

1Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days3

103Games · 7 days81

6Matches · 14 days4

156Games · 14 days111

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/fokina-vs-gea-shanghai-masters-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).