Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik | Shanghai Masters Round of 16

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR16HardTue 13 Oct · ~13:30STADIUM COURT · After 1 match

Arthur GeaATP #56 · FRA36%

VSSlight edge · Mensik J.

Jakub Mensik(13)ATP #15 · CZE64%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Mensik J.

36%64%

Mensik J. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Gea A.5.9/10

Even match

Mensik J.7.6/10

Dominant favourite

Why

Surface+283 Hard Elo edgeSupports Mensik J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1931Supports Mensik J.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Gea A.

This eventReached the R64 here last yearSupports Mensik J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Mensik J.

ELO1 965

Hard ELO1 873

Last 108–2

Age21

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $801K2026 $549K

ELO2 083

Hard ELO1 936

Last 106–4

Age21

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $7.4M2026 $2.5M

Arthur Gea faces Jakub Mensik in the Shanghai Masters round of 16 on hard. Jakub Mensik is the paper favourite — ranked #15, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage — but Arthur Gea arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Jakub Mensik's 6 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Arthur Gea 152 games in 14 days, Jakub Mensik 85.
Under pressure: Jakub Mensik has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 74 vs Arthur Gea's 38).
Last match: Arthur Gea won all two sets in tiebreaks against Ben Shelton.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Gea A. and Mensik J. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Gea A. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Mensik J. 4–2 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 2 better-results split).

2–250%Gea A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents4–267%Mensik J. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–6Sets8–6

64–64Games68–68

3–3Tiebreaks1–0

1–1Deciding sets2–0

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Shelton B.#4W7-6(5) 7-6(3)Shanghai Masters · hardW5-7 6-4 6-3Davis Cup · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#20W6-7(11) 6-4 6-0Los Cabos · hardL3-6 3-6Beijing · hard
vs Khachanov K.#27L3-6 0-6Roland Garros · clayW6-4 7-6Madrid Masters · clay

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vs Van De Zandschulp B.#41L6-3 7-6(0) 6-7(7) 6-7(3) 4-6US Open · hardW6-4 7-5Montreal · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gea A.Mensik J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–26–4

Season win rate73% (48–18)64% (36–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19652083

Hard-court ELO18731936

Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 50 matches

1st-serve points won75%78%

Return points won40%37%

Aces / match6.511.2

ClutchLast 48 vs 50 matches

Break points saved65%62%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

1De Minaur A. v Khachanov K.6-3 0-1
2This match: Gea A. v Mensik J.This match
3Zverev A. v Bublik A.Not before 18:00
4Hurkacz H. v Davidovich Fokina A.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · ~13:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast27°C · Mainly clear

Wind14 km/h

Humidity54%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Gea A.Mensik J.

2Days since last match2

3Matches · 7 days2

80Games · 7 days44

6Matches · 14 days4

152Games · 14 days85

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik — Shanghai Masters Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/gea-vs-mensik-shanghai-masters-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).