Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea — Los Cabos Quarter-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Quarter-final
Francisco Cerundolo
ARG3
Francisco Cerundolo
#20ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWWWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
FRA
Arthur Gea
#127ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$359kYTD
$611kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
Cerundolo F.
vs
Gea A.

Francisco Cerundolo faces Arthur Gea in the Los Cabos quarter-final on hard. Francisco Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #20, a roughly 270-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Cerundolo F.65%
Gea A.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cerundolo F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Cerundolo F. 2–1 · Gea A. 2–2 · small sample
Cerundolo F. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cerundolo F.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gea A.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.4+271 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Hard Elo 1610
9.2Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
0.8Overall Elo 1596
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Cerundolo F.Gea A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
62%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
6.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cerundolo F.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Gea A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cerundolo F.Gea A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
38
Break points saved·Clear edge
94
81
Break points won·Dominant
89
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
86
26
Tiebreaks·Even
87
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cerundolo F.Gea A.
Freshness·Clear edge
85
69

Cerundolo F.: played today · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Gea A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 87%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw