Arthur Gea vs Botic Van De Zandschulp — US Open Round of 16

US Open · ATP · Round of 16
FRALL
Arthur Gea
#87ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWW
2 — 3
Sets
Monday, 7 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 4th on
Botic Van De Zandschulp
NED
Botic Van De Zandschulp
#70ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWL
Gea A.
6-3 7-6 6-7 6-7 4-6
Van De Zandschulp B.
Gea A.
677676342
Van De Zandschulp B.
360797763

Botic Van De Zandschulp defeated Arthur Gea in the Round of 16 at the US Open. The match lasted five sets, with Van De Zandschulp ultimately prevailing 3-6, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 6-4. He hit 15 aces and committed 9 double faults, converting 33% of break points and winning 7 service breaks, compared to Gea's 10 aces, 12 double faults, 44% break point conversion, and 7 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “After Los Cabos I was happy, but that was a stepping stone. Now it's the same thing. The goal isn't to stop at Round 4. If I can go even further, that would be great.”

    Gea A.US Open Tennis ↗

  • “Of course it's nice to be the last French player. But I'd rather be the last player left in the tournament than simply the last French player.”

    Gea A.US Open Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gea A.Van De Zandschulp B.
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
46%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.1
7.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gea A.Van De Zandschulp B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
38
71
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
93
Break points won·Dominant
27
53
Deciding sets·Dominant
26
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Gea A.53%
Van De Zandschulp B.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gea A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Van De Zandschulp B.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1610
Surface ELO
6.3+101 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1596
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1743
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.99 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gea A.Van De Zandschulp B.
Freshness·Even
36
39

Gea A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 186 games (7d) · Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 171 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw