Arthur Gea vs Denis Shapovalov — Los Cabos Final

Los Cabos · ATP · Final
FRA
Arthur Gea
#127ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$359kYTD
$611kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
Denis Shapovalov
CAN8
Denis Shapovalov
#68ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWLLL
Gea A.
vs
Shapovalov D.

Arthur Gea faces Denis Shapovalov in the Los Cabos final on hard. Denis Shapovalov holds the paper edge — ranked #68, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Gea A.49%
Shapovalov D.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Arthur Gea comes in with 0 days of rest and 146 games in 14d, vs Denis Shapovalov's 1 and 60.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Denis Shapovalov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 74 vs 38).
  • Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Gea A. 2–1 · Shapovalov D. 1–1 · small sample
Gea A. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gea A.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Shapovalov D.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1610
Surface ELO
7.1+166 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1596
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1771
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.48 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
Gea A.Shapovalov D.
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.3
7.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gea A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Serve advantage — Gea A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Gea A.Shapovalov D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
38
74
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
97
Break points won·Dominant
27
56
Deciding sets·Dominant
26
91
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
74

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Gea A.Shapovalov D.
Freshness·Clear edge
44
68

Gea A.: played today · 4 matches, 104 games (7d) · Shapovalov D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
16°CPartly cloudy
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 97%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw