Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — London Quarter-final
USA
Paul T.
Tommy Paul faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the London quarter-final on grass. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 5–0, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Paul T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Tommy Paul comes in with 3 days of rest and 21 games in 14d, vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 2 and 49.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head 5–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Australian Open 2026.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadPaul T.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
5–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | R32 | hard | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-1 0-0 RET |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | R16 | hard | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-08-28 | US Open | R32 | hard | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-0 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | R32 | hard | Tommy Paul | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | R64 | hard | Tommy Paul | 6-2 2-6 6-7(4) 6-3 6-4 |