Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar — Shanghai Masters Final
Why
Surface+30 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Jodar R.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1999Against the prediction · Jodar R.
This eventReached the R32 here last yearSupports Davidovich Fokina A.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Recent run5-match win streakBoth players
ELO2 099
Hard ELO1 932
Last 109–1
Age27
Height183 cm
EarningsCareer $12.3M2026 $1.4M
ELO2 090
Hard ELO1 866
Last 107–3
Age20
Height191 cm
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $2.5M
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai Masters final on hard. Rafael Jodar is the paper favourite — ranked #13, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage — but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 9 on hard to Rafael Jodar's 6 of 9.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86 games in 14 days, Rafael Jodar 120.
- Serve & return: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads on Serve Rating (46), Rafael Jodar on Return Rating (79).
- Last match: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina dropped the opening set before beating Alexander Zverev 5–7 6–4 6–3.
Common opponents
8 shared · last 12 monthsDavidovich Fokina A. and Jodar R. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Davidovich Fokina A. went 5–4 (56%) against them, Jodar R. 7–2 (78%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 3 better-results split).
5–456%Davidovich Fokina A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents7–278%Jodar R. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
12–10Sets16–12
103–104Games134–110
1–1Tiebreaks0–0
2–1Deciding sets5–0
vs Zverev A.#2W5-7 6-4 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardL1-6 3-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Mensik J.#15W6-2 4-6 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hardL2-6 4-6 4-6Australian Open · hard
vs Tien L.#16L6-4 1-6 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-1 6-4Rome Masters · clay
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vs Ruud C.#24L3-6 1-6Madrid Masters · clayW4-6 6-4 6-3Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Tirante T.#54L6-4 1-6 3-6Roland Garros · clayW4-6 6-2 6-3Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Carreno-Busta P.#65W6-3 6-3Madrid Masters · clayW4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2Roland Garros · clay
vs Moutet C.#71W6-4 6-3London · grassW4-6 6-1 6-3Montreal · hard
vs Garin C.#131W7-6 6-4Rome Masters · clayW6-0 6-2Davis Cup · clay
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Davidovich Fokina A.Jodar R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate67% (32–16)77% (56–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2099 (ahead)2090
Hard-court ELO1932 (ahead)1866
Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 68 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)70%
Return points won36%41% (ahead)
Aces / match4.6 (ahead)4.2
ClutchLast 48 vs 68 matches
Break points saved67% (ahead)63%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar — Shanghai Masters Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/fokina-vs-jodar-shanghai-masters-f?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).