Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final

Shanghai MastersQuarter-finalHardFri 16 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
50%50%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Jodar R.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Ruud C.6.6/10
Marginal edge
What we know
Surface+16 Hard Elo edgeFavours Ruud C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1999Favours Jodar R.
This eventReached the R64 here last yearFavours Ruud C.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysFavours Ruud C.
Recent run3-match win streakBoth players
ELO2 077
Hard ELO1 853
Last 107–3
Age20
Height191 cm
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $2.5M
ELO2 105
Hard ELO1 874
Last 106–4
Age27
Height183 cm
EarningsCareer $29.4M2026 $2.2M

Rafael Jodar faces Casper Ruud in the Shanghai Masters quarter-final on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months

Jodar R. and Ruud C. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Jodar R. went 8–4 (67%) against them, Ruud C. 7–5 (58%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

8–467%Jodar R. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents7–558%Ruud C. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
17–14Sets15–10
146–139Games138–114
2–2Tiebreaks2–3
4–1Deciding sets0–0
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Jodar R.Ruud C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate76% (54–17) (ahead)62% (29–18)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO20772105 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18531874 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 66 vs 46 matches
1st-serve points won70%72% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)37%
Aces / match4.16.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 66 vs 46 matches
Break points saved63%68% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast25°C · Mainly clear
Wind17 km/h
Humidity53%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Jodar R.Ruud C.
1Days since last match1
3Matches · 7 days3
91Games · 7 days50 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days4
107Games · 14 days72 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-16/jodar-vs-ruud-shanghai-masters-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 16 October 2026).