Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo MusettiWashington Quarter-final

Washington · ATP · Quarter-final
#15ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 4th on
#13ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Jodar R.
1-6 6-1 6-4
Musetti L.
Jodar R.
1662
Musetti L.
6141

Rafael Jodar defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals of the Washington tournament, prevailing 1-6, 6-1, 6-4. Jodar served five aces to Musetti's three and converted three service breaks to Musetti's two. He also had a higher first-serve win percentage, at 77 to 72.

Around the match

  • Musetti returns to competition after thigh injury kept him sidelined since May, facing steep step up against in-form Jodar.

    Musetti L.The Grandstand
  • Musetti is easing back onto the tour after missing Roland-Garros and Wimbledon due to injury, with health remaining a consistent concern despite top-10 talent when fit.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-06MontrealR32hardRafael Jodar6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
67%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
86
88
Break points saved·Even
91
94
Break points won·Slight edge
71
81
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Jodar R.49%
Musetti L.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+69 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1804
6.6Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
58
78

Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 86 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw