Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti — Washington Round of 32
ITA4
Arnaldi M.Matteo Arnaldi faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti holds the paper edge — ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Musetti L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Lorenzo Musetti has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 85 vs 43).
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Musetti leads the head-to-head 3–0, 0–1 on hard. Last met at Australian Open 2025.
- Fatigue load: Matteo Arnaldi carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadArnaldi M.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | R128 | hard | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-6 4-6 7-6 6-3 |
| 2023-07-17 | Bastad | R16 | clay | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-3 4-6 7-6 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | R64 | clay | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-4 |