Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi — Australian Open Round of 128

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 128
Lorenzo Musetti
ITA16
Lorenzo Musetti
#14ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
3 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 January 2025
hard
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Musetti L.
7-6 4-6 7-6 6-3
Arnaldi M.
Musetti L.
7747763
Arnaldi M.
6466531

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-6 4-6 7-6 6-3 in the Australian Open round of 128 on hard. The result followed the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 64. Lorenzo Musetti extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Lorenzo Musetti closed it out in four sets, 7–6 4–6 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-07-17BastadR16clayLorenzo Musetti6-3 4-6 7-6(6)
2023-05-08Rome MastersR64clayLorenzo Musetti6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Musetti L.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Serve advantage — Musetti L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Musetti L.Arnaldi M.
54
Serve
23
62
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Musetti L.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.5
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 60). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Musetti L.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
78
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Dominant
82
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
86
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Musetti L.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Arnaldi M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.7+71 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.3Hard Elo 1732
7.9Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
3.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.6
Minutes 14d
8.2
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Musetti L.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·
—
97

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 66%
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Zverev A.[2]
6-37-646-3
Semi-finals
Zverev A.[2]
Djokovic N.[7]
7-650-0
Sinner J.[1]
Shelton B.[21]
7-626-26-2
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[1]
De Minaur A.[8]
6-36-26-1
Shelton B.[21]
Sonego L.
6-47-54-67-64
Djokovic N.[7]
Alcaraz C.[3]
4-66-46-36-4
Zverev A.[2]
Paul T.[12]
7-617-602-66-1
R16
Shelton B.[21]
Monfils G.
7-636-737-621-0
Alcaraz C.[3]
Draper J.[15]
7-56-10-0
Sonego L.
Tien L.
6-36-23-66-1
Zverev A.[2]
Humbert U.[14]
6-12-66-36-2
Sinner J.[1]
Rune H.[13]
6-33-66-36-2
Paul T.[12]
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-16-16-1
De Minaur A.[8]
Michelsen A.
6-07-656-3
Djokovic N.[7]
Lehecka J.[24]
6-36-47-64
R32
Humbert U.[14]
Fils A.[20]
4-67-56-41-0
Paul T.[12]
Carballes Baena R.
7-606-26-0
Lehecka J.[24]
Bonzi B.
6-26-36-3
Michelsen A.
Khachanov K.[19]
6-37-656-2
Davidovich Fokina A.
Mensik J.
3-64-67-676-46-2
Draper J.[15]
Vukic A.
6-42-65-77-657-68
Shelton B.[21]
Musetti L.[16]
6-33-66-47-65
Sinner J.[1]
Giron M.
6-36-46-2
Monfils G.
Fritz T.[4]
3-67-57-616-4
Tien L.
Moutet C.
7-6106-36-3
Rune H.[13]
Kecmanovic M.
6-756-34-66-46-4
De Minaur A.[8]
Cerundolo F.[31]
5-77-636-36-3
Djokovic N.[7]
Machac T.[26]
6-16-46-4
Zverev A.[2]
Fearnley J.
6-36-46-4
Sonego L.
Marozsan F.
6-737-666-16-2
Alcaraz C.[3]
Borges N.
6-26-46-736-2
R64
Carballes Baena R.
Duckworth J.
6-46-27-5
Lehecka J.[24]
Gaston H.
6-33-1
Cerundolo F.[31]
Diaz Acosta F.
6-21-0
Bonzi B.
Passaro F.
6-26-43-66-4
Rune H.[13]
Berrettini M.
7-632-66-37-66
De Minaur A.[8]
Boyer T.
6-26-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Diallo G.
7-644-66-36-3
Fritz T.[4]
Garin C.
6-26-16-0
Moutet C.
Krueger M.
4-66-47-636-4
Fils A.[20]
Halys Q.
6-24-67-627-5
Tien L.
Medvedev D.[5]
6-37-646-781-67-67
Zverev A.[2]
Martinez P.
6-16-46-1
Monfils G.
Altmaier D.
7-56-37-63
Davidovich Fokina A.
Auger Aliassime F.[29]
6-776-756-46-16-3
Marozsan F.
Tiafoe F.[17]
6-736-43-66-46-1
Vukic A.
Korda S.[22]
6-43-62-66-37-5
Paul T.[12]
Nishikori K.
6-736-06-36-1
Michelsen A.
Mccabe J.
7-56-37-64
Sinner J.[1]
Schoolkate T.
4-66-46-16-3
Draper J.[15]
Kokkinakis T.
6-736-33-67-56-3
Kecmanovic M.
Hurkacz H.[18]
6-46-46-2
Humbert U.[14]
Habib H.
6-36-46-4
Alcaraz C.[3]
Nishioka Y.
6-06-16-4
Borges N.
Thompson J.[27]
6-36-26-4
Machac T.[26]
Opelka R.
3-67-616-757-646-4
Sonego L.
Fonseca J.
6-766-36-13-66-3
Djokovic N.[7]
Faria J.
6-16-746-36-2
Fearnley J.
Cazaux A.
3-67-56-26-3
Shelton B.[21]
Carreno Busta P.
6-36-36-746-4
Mensik J.
Ruud C.[6]
6-23-66-16-4
Musetti L.[16]
Shapovalov D.
7-637-666-2
Giron M.
Etcheverry T.
7-53-67-53-66-4
R128
Faria J.
Kotov P.
6-16-17-5
Davidovich Fokina A.
Shang J.
7-615-2
Passaro F.
Dimitrov G.[10]
7-52-1
Martinez P.
Darderi L.
6-34-1
Halys Q.
Walton A.
4-64-66-47-647-5
Nishioka Y.
Dougaz A.
3-66-47-636-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Mannarino A.
7-656-36-3
Altmaier D.
Comesana F.
6-23-67-644-66-4
Fils A.[20]
Virtanen O.
3-67-646-46-4
De Minaur A.[8]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-17-56-4
Hurkacz H.[18]
Griekspoor T.
7-56-46-4
Fritz T.[4]
Brooksby J.
6-26-06-3
Lehecka J.[24]
Tu L.
6-13-66-37-61
Fearnley J.
Kyrgios N.
7-636-37-62
Shelton B.[21]
Nakashima B.
7-637-57-5
Carballes Baena R.
Tabilo A.[23]
1-66-26-37-61
Thompson J.[27]
Koepfer D.
7-636-44-66-3
Kokkinakis T.
Safiullin R.
3-66-36-37-65
Rune H.[13]
Zhang Z.
4-66-36-43-66-4
Machac T.[26]
Nagal S.
6-36-17-5
Borges N.
Muller A.
6-726-36-27-5
Giron M.
Hanfmann Y.
2-67-56-17-5
Mensik J.
Basilashvili N.
6-16-736-36-3
Kecmanovic M.
Lajovic D.
7-53-66-33-66-3
Nishikori K.
Monteiro T.
4-66-747-56-26-3
Shapovalov D.
Bautista Agut R.
3-66-46-47-68
Cerundolo F.[31]
Bublik A.
7-616-36-2
Michelsen A.
Tsitsipas S.[11]
7-56-32-66-4
Paul T.[12]
Oconnell C.
6-23-66-16-757-5
Marozsan F.
Seyboth Wild T.
6-36-757-55-77-5
Draper J.[15]
Navone M.
4-66-33-66-36-2
Musetti L.[16]
Arnaldi M.
7-644-67-656-3
Duckworth J.
Stricker D.
6-26-46-2
Korda S.[22]
Klein L.
6-30-66-37-66
Vukic A.
Dzumhur D.
6-736-03-66-36-4
Medvedev D.[5]
Samrej K.
6-24-63-66-16-2
Zverev A.[2]
Pouille L.
6-46-46-4
Garin C.
Coric B.
7-56-16-2
Carreno Busta P.
Majchrzak K.
6-46-46-3
Habib H.
Yunchaokete B.
7-646-47-66
Diaz Acosta F.
Bergs Z.
6-756-41-66-36-4
Opelka R.
Onclin G.
3-67-646-36-2
Monfils G.
Mpetshi Perricard G.[30]
7-676-36-766-756-4
Berrettini M.
Norrie C.
6-746-46-16-3
Bonzi B.
Goffin D.
6-16-27-67
Fonseca J.
Rublev A.[9]
7-616-37-65
Djokovic N.[7]
Basavareddy N.
4-66-36-46-2
Cazaux A.
Baez S.[28]
6-35-73-66-06-3
Sinner J.[1]
Jarry N.
7-627-656-1
Boyer T.
Coria F.
6-36-734-67-56-1
Gaston H.
Jasika O.
6-23-66-26-2
Mccabe J.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-4
Moutet C.
Popyrin A.[25]
4-66-36-46-4
Tien L.
Ugo Carabelli C.
4-67-636-35-76-4
Sonego L.
Wawrinka S.
6-45-77-57-5
Auger Aliassime F.[29]
Struff J.
6-36-04-66-1
Alcaraz C.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-17-56-1
Diallo G.
Nardi L.
6-717-635-76-16-2
Schoolkate T.
Daniel T.
6-767-646-16-4
Ruud C.[6]
Munar J.
6-31-67-52-66-1
Tiafoe F.[17]
Rinderknech A.
7-626-34-66-746-3
Etcheverry T.
Cobolli F.[32]
6-786-37-56-1
Krueger M.
Hijikata R.
6-46-46-3
Humbert U.[14]
Gigante M.
7-657-56-4