Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo ArnaldiBastad Round of 16

Bastad · ATP · Round of 16
#15ATP
1869ELO
1853Clay ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 July 2023
clay
#35ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Musetti L.
6-3 4-6 7-6
Arnaldi M.
Musetti L.
64782
Arnaldi M.
36661

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-3 4-6 7-6 in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 32. Lorenzo Musetti extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Lorenzo Musetti closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 7–6.

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardLorenzo Musetti7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3
2023-05-08Rome MastersR64clayLorenzo Musetti6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Musetti L.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Serve advantage — Musetti L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Musetti L.Arnaldi M.
35
Serve
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
78
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Dominant
82
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
86
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
7.8+22 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Clay Elo 1830
7.9Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1830
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.0
Surface form
8.4
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.2
Minutes 14d
4.8
0.0
3-set count
0.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
16°CDrizzle
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 90%