Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — Washington Semi-final

Washington · ATP · Semi-final
Rafael Jodar
ESP
Rafael Jodar
#24ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
Alejandro Tabilo
CHI
Alejandro Tabilo
#30ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLWLLL
Jodar R.
vs
Tabilo A.

Rafael Jodar faces Alejandro Tabilo in the Washington semi-final on hard. Rafael Jodar is the paper favourite — ranked #24, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Alejandro Tabilo has won their only previous meeting.

Around the match

  • “It sounds very good. All the hard work I'm putting in the training weeks and the competition is paying off. I am always trying to give my best.”

    Jodar R.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I didn't start very well with Lorenzo winning the first set 6-1. I had to reset mentally. I think I did a great job, especially in the beginning of the second set.”

    Jodar R.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Jodar R.66%
Tabilo A.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Jodar R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Jodar R. 7–4 · Tabilo A. 6–6
Both won · same surface · 10 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Tabilo A.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1750
7.2Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1819
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.06 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

41 vs 43 matches

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
6.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jodar R.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Tabilo A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
31
Break points saved·Even
91
92
Break points won·Dominant
71
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
7

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Tabilo A.
Freshness·Clear edge
67
51

Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: played today · 3 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128hardAlejandro Tabilo6-1 6-2

Draw