Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti — Washington Round of 16
ITA4
Vukic A.
Aleksandar Vukic faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti is the paper favourite — ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage — but Aleksandar Vukic rides a 7-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Musetti L. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Lorenzo Musetti has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 31).
- Last match: Aleksandar Vukic dropped just 4 games past Zachary Svajda.
- Last match: Lorenzo Musetti advanced when Matteo Arnaldi retired.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadVukic A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | Pune | R16 | hard | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-6 3-6 6-3 |