Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev — Shanghai Masters Semi-final
Why
Surface+90 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1999Against the prediction · Jodar R.
This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Medvedev D.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Medvedev D.
Recent run4-match win streakBoth players
ELO2 077
Hard ELO1 853
Last 107–3
Age20
Height191 cm
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $2.5M
ELO2 133
Hard ELO2 037
Last 109–1
Age30
Height198 cm
EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M
Rafael Jodar faces Daniil Medvedev in the Shanghai Masters semi-final on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage.
Key context
- Freshness: Rafael Jodar comes in with 2 days of rest and 91 games in 14d, vs Daniil Medvedev's 2 and 147.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Daniil Medvedev rising, Rafael Jodar cooling.
- Last match: Rafael Jodar dropped the opening set before beating Casper Ruud 4–6 6–4 6–3.
Common opponents
13 shared · last 12 monthsJodar R. and Medvedev D. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Jodar R. went 10–6 (63%) against them, Medvedev D. 7–7 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 2 better-results split).
10–663%Jodar R. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents7–750%Medvedev D. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
24–23Sets19–16
232–216Games182–167
1–5Tiebreaks2–6
7–1Deciding sets1–4
vs Sinner J.#1L2-6 6-7Madrid Masters · clayL2-6 7-5 4-6Rome Masters · clay- vs Cobolli F.#7L6-4 6-7(3) 3-6Cincinnati · hardL3-6 7-5 4-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Tien L.#16W6-1 6-4Rome Masters · clayL4-6 0-6 3-6Australian Open · hard
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- vs Nakashima B.#18L6-7 4-6Montreal · hardL7-6(3) 6-7(4) 1-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Tabilo A.#30L1-6 2-6Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-4 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Etcheverry T.#31L5-7 4-6Miami Masters · hardW6-3 6-4Halle · grass- vs Michelsen A.#35W4-6 6-3 6-3Roland Garros · clayW6-2 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#41W6-7(4) 6-4 6-2Shanghai Masters · hardL3-6 6-7(5)Montreal · hard- vs Tirante T.#54W4-6 6-2 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardW6-3 6-2Rome Masters · clay
vs Carreno-Busta P.#65W3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4Wimbledon · grassW6-4 6-2Beijing · hard- vs De Jong J.#95W2-6 7-5 6-4Madrid Masters · clayW7-5 6-2 7-6Australian Open · hard
vs Sakamoto R.#137W7-6 6-1 5-7 4-6 6-3Australian Open · hardW6-7 6-3 6-1Miami Masters · hard
vs Zverev A.#2Hard to compareL1-6 3-6Roland Garros · clayL6-2 3-6 6-7Paris Masters · hard
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Jodar R.Medvedev D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–39–1 (ahead)
Season win rate76% (55–17) (ahead)73% (46–17)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO20772133 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18532037 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 67 vs 61 matches
1st-serve points won70%75% (ahead)
Return points won41%41%
Aces / match4.28.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 67 vs 61 matches
Break points saved63%64% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev — Shanghai Masters Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/jodar-vs-medvedev-shanghai-masters-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).