Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima — Montreal Semi-final

Montreal · ATP · Semi-final
Rafael Jodar
ESP20
Rafael Jodar
#11ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
Brandon Nakashima
USA28
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
Jodar R.
6-7 4-6
Nakashima B.
Jodar R.
640
Nakashima B.
762

Brandon Nakashima defeated Rafael Jodar in the Montreal semifinals, winning 7-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Nakashima hit 6 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Jodar had 4 aces and 5 double faults. Nakashima converted 9% of break points and won one service break to advance.

Around the match

  • “I knew that I was doing things right. I was just trying to play my game and see what happened. That worked perfectly today, and I stayed very calm during those important pressure moments.”

    Jodar R.nextgenatpfinals.com ↗

  • “Super happy with making my first semi-final. It was a goal of mine at the beginning of the year to try to do well at one of these Masters 1000s tournaments. So to be able to do it for the first time here is really special.”

    Nakashima B.nextgenatpfinals.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
64%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
34%
Break points saved·Even
62%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.5
10.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
36
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
96
Break points won·Dominant
71
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
37
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
93
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Jodar R.61%
Nakashima B.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Jodar R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nakashima B.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+85 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1788
7.0Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1839
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.09 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.77 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
52

Jodar R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw