Alex De Minaur vs Karen Khachanov

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR16HardTue 13 Oct · 12:00STADIUM COURT · Next on

Alex De Minaur(9)ATP #9 · AUS59%

VSSlight edge · De Minaur A.

Karen Khachanov(26)ATP #27 · RUS41%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · De Minaur A.

59%41%

De Minaur A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

De Minaur A.7.5/10

Dominant favourite

Khachanov K.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+152 Hard Elo edgeSupports De Minaur A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1961Supports De Minaur A.

Head-to-headSplit 2–2 on hardSupports De Minaur A.

This eventReached the quarters here last yearSupports De Minaur A.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Khachanov K.

ELO2 110

Hard ELO1 989

Last 108–2

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $25.8M2026 $3.0M

ELO2 053

Hard ELO1 902

Last 108–2

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $23.5M2026 $1.4M

Alex De Minaur faces Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Masters round of 16 on hard. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #9, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2.

Key context

Serve & return: Karen Khachanov leads on Serve Rating (58), Alex De Minaur on Return Rating (72).
Last match: Karen Khachanov dropped just 6 games past Adrian Mannarino.
Last match: Alex De Minaur edged Rei Sakamoto in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

All 11 opponents →

De Minaur A. and Khachanov K. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. De Minaur A. went 10–4 (71%) against them, Khachanov K. 6–5 (55%). De Minaur A. came out better against 3 of 11 comparable opponents, Khachanov K. against 1 — though 2 of those edges carry caveats (lower-tier event, retirement).

10–471%De Minaur A. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents6–555%Khachanov K. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

23–13Sets18–14

190–161Games166–146

4–1Tiebreaks3–6

2–0Deciding sets2–2

vs Zverev A.#2W2-6 7-6(5) 11-9Laver Cup - London · hardL3-6 6-7(7) 6-7(6)US Open · hard
vs Cobolli F.#7L5-7 6-7 3-6Wimbledon · grassL6-0 6-7 7-6 2-6 2-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Mensik J.#15L6-0 2-6 2-6 3-6Roland Garros · clayL4-6 6-7Madrid Masters · clay

Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Ruud C.#24L3-6 3-6United Cup · hardL1-6 6-1 2-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Blockx A.#28W7-5 7-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayW6-2 7-5 3-2US Open · hard
vs Hurkacz H.#34W6-4 3-2Beijing · hardL6-7(2) 2-6Beijing · hard
vs Fery A.#37W7-5 7-6(3)Cincinnati · hardW7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(2)Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#41L4-6 5-7 2-6US Open · hardW5-7 6-4 6-4Rome Masters · clay
vs Burruchaga R.#62W7-6 6-1 6-0Wimbledon · grassW6-3 6-0 6-1US Open · hard
vs Mannarino A.#83W6-3 6-2 6-2Wimbledon · grassW6-2 6-4Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Bonzi B.#92W6-2 6-4s Hertogenbosch · grassW6-3 6-2 6-4US Open · hard

Head-to-head

4 meetings · level 2–2

Full H2H →

De Minaur A.October 2025Paris MastersHard6-2 6-2
Khachanov K.October 2024ViennaHard6-2 6-4
Khachanov K.February 2022DubaiHard6-3 6-7 7-5
De Minaur A.August 2020US OpenHard6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1

Evidence

De Minaur A.Khachanov K.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate68% (40–19)54% (25–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21102053

Hard-court ELO19891902

Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 40 matches

1st-serve points won71%76%

Return points won40%36%

Aces / match4.38.5

ClutchLast 51 vs 40 matches

Break points saved68%67%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · Next on · Starts at 12:00

1This match: De Minaur A. v Khachanov K.This match
2Gea A. v Mensik J.Followed by
3Zverev A. v Bublik A.Not before 18:00
4Hurkacz H. v Davidovich Fokina A.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · 12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast26°C · Clear

Wind12 km/h

Humidity58%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

De Minaur A.Khachanov K.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days2

52Games · 7 days57

6Matches · 14 days5

131Games · 14 days117

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alex De Minaur vs Karen Khachanov — Shanghai Masters Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/khachanov-vs-minaur-shanghai-masters-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).