Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR16HardTue 13 Oct · 18:00STADIUM COURT · After 1 match

Alexander Zverev(1)ATP #2 · GER78%

VSClear favourite · Zverev A.

Alexander Bublik(19)ATP #22 · KAZ22%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Zverev A.

78%22%

Clear edge for Zverev A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Zverev A.7.7/10

Dominant favourite

Bublik A.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+205 Hard Elo edgeSupports Zverev A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2100Supports Zverev A.

Head-to-headTrails 0–2 on hardInformative

This eventReached the R32 here last yearInformative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Bublik A.

ELO2 319

Hard ELO2 137

Last 108–2

Age29

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $68.6M2026 $9.0M

ELO2 078

Hard ELO1 907

Last 106–4

Age29

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.7M2026 $1.7M

Alexander Zverev faces Alexander Bublik in the Shanghai Masters round of 16 on hard. Alexander Zverev is the paper favourite — ranked #2, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Alexander Bublik has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings.

Key context

Freshness: Alexander Zverev comes in with 2 days of rest and 123 games in 14d, vs Alexander Bublik's 2 and 81.
Last match: Alexander Bublik dropped the opening set before beating Brandon Nakashima 6–7 6–3 7–6.
Head-to-head: Alexander Bublik leads the head-to-head 3–1, 0–2 on hard. Last met at Halle 2023.

Common opponents

15 shared · last 12 months

All 15 opponents →

Zverev A. and Bublik A. faced 15 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Zverev A. went 16–5 (76%) against them, Bublik A. 7–12 (37%). Zverev A. came out better against 6 of 15 comparable opponents, Bublik A. against 1.

16–576%Zverev A. · better vs 6Record vs common opponents7–1237%Bublik A. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

44–21Sets19–32

383–310Games247–285

10–8Tiebreaks8–7

5–4Deciding sets4–3

vs Alcaraz C.#3L4-6 6-7 7-6 7-6 5-7Australian Open · hardL3-6 0-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Auger-Aliassime F.#6L4-6 6-7Tour Finals · hardL6-7 4-6Paris Masters · hard
vs Tiafoe F.#8W6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardW4-6 7-6 7-6 4-6 6-3Wimbledon · grass

Show 12 more ▾Show less ▴

vs De Minaur A.#9L6-2 6-7(5) 9-11Laver Cup - London · hardL4-6 1-6 1-6Australian Open · hard
vs Fritz T.#12W6-4 6-4 6-2Wimbledon · grassL6-7 4-6 4-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Jodar R.#13W6-1 6-3Roland Garros · clayL2-6 3-6Laver Cup - London · hard
vs Mensik J.#15W7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3Roland Garros · clayL4-6 6-7(5)Beijing · hard
vs Tien L.#16W6-3 6-7 6-1 7-6Australian Open · hardL6-4 3-6 5-7Rome Masters · clay
vs Paul T.#17L6-4 6-7(6) 4-6Cincinnati · hardL4-6 6-3 7-6(4) 1-6 3-6US Open · hard
vs Nakashima B.#18W7-6 5-7 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Lehecka J.#19W6-4 7-5 3-6 7-6Wimbledon · grassW6-2 7-5Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Berrettini M.#46W6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardL4-6 4-6Miami Masters · hard
vs Halys Q.#48W6-4 4-6 7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-3US Open · hardL4-6 6-7(6)Kitzbuhel · clay
vs Kopriva V.#68W6-3 4-6 6-2Halle · grassW3-6 7-6 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Machac T.#75W6-4 6-2 6-2Roland Garros · clayW6-4 7-6(4)Shanghai Masters · hard

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Bublik A. leads 3–1

Full H2H →

Grass: Bublik A. leads 1–0 · Clay: Zverev A. leads 1–0 · Hard: Bublik A. leads 2–0

Bublik A.June 2023HalleGrass6-3 7-5
Zverev A.April 2023Monte Carlo MastersClay3-6 6-2 6-4
Bublik A.January 2022MontpellierHard6-4 6-3
Bublik A.March 2021RotterdamHard7-5 6-3

Evidence

Zverev A.Bublik A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–26–4

Season win rate81% (60–14)60% (30–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO23192078

Hard-court ELO21371907

Serve vs returnLast 69 vs 46 matches

1st-serve points won77%77%

Return points won37%33%

Aces / match10.612.1

ClutchLast 69 vs 46 matches

Break points saved61%64%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 1 match · Not before 18:00

1De Minaur A. v Khachanov K.6-3 6-4
2Gea A. v Mensik J.6-6(0)
3This match: Zverev A. v Bublik A.This match
4Hurkacz H. v Davidovich Fokina A.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · 18:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast23°C · Clear

Wind8 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Zverev A.Bublik A.

2Days since last match2

2Matches · 7 days2

55Games · 7 days58

5Matches · 14 days3

123Games · 14 days81

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik — Shanghai Masters Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/bublik-vs-zverev-shanghai-masters-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).