Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — US Open Round of 32
US Open · ATP · Round of 32
KAZ15#16ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLLWW
2 — 3
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Louis Armstrong Stadium · 3rd on
Bublik A.4-6 6-3 7-6 1-6 3-6
Paul T.
Bublik A.
4677132
Paul T.
6364663
Tommy Paul defeated Alexander Bublik in the Round of 32 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3. Paul converted 67% of his break points and secured 3 service breaks to Bublik's 1, while also committing fewer double faults, 1 to 3.
Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.
Key context
- Match story: Tommy Paul came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–4 3–6 6–7 6–1 6–3.
Head to head
2–4| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | US Open | R32 | hard | Alexander Bublik | 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1 |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | R64 | hard | Tommy Paul | 5-7 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | R32 | grass | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-03-01 | Rotterdam | R16 | hard | Tommy Paul | 6-7 6-3 6-1 |
| 2020-09-21 | Hamburg | Q2 | clay | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-06-17 | Queen's Club | Q2 | grass | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 7-6 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
56%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
38%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.7
6.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.7
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTCBublik A.36%
Paul T.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Paul T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1837
Surface ELO5.6+44 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap5.7Overall Elo 1948
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H4.8Split 1–1 on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form6.76 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the R32 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 44%