Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino — US Open Round of 64
Bublik A.
Alexander Bublik faces Adrian Mannarino in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #16, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Bublik A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Alexander Bublik leads on Serve Rating (63), Adrian Mannarino on Return Rating (21).
- Freshness: Alexander Bublik comes in with 2 days of rest and 34 games in 14d, vs Adrian Mannarino's 3 and 66.
- Last match: Adrian Mannarino came back from two sets down to beat Thiago Agustin Tirante.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBublik A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Mannarino A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | R32 | hard | Adrian Mannarino | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2020-01-06 | Doha | R32 | hard | Alexander Bublik | 6-3 6-4 |