Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — US Open Round of 16

US Open · ATP · Round of 16
Tommy Paul
USA20
Tommy Paul
#21ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWL
0 — 3
Sets
Sunday, 6 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 3rd on
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Paul T.
4-6 3-6 4-6
Alcaraz C.
Paul T.
4340
Alcaraz C.
6663

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul in the Round of 16 at the US Open. The match ended with a straight-sets victory for Alcaraz, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Alcaraz has returned to competition at the US Open after more than four months out with a right wrist injury.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Alcaraz C.Tennishead ↗

  • “He's looked very solid, the kit looks excellent. Won his first day match...I've got him at number two.”

    Alcaraz C.Tennishead ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz closed it out in three sets, 6–4 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

2–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6 6-4 7-5
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6
2024-07-01WimbledonQFgrassCarlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023-08-14Cincinnati MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6 6-7 6-3
2023-08-07Canada MastersQFhardTommy Paul6-3 4-6 6-3
2023-03-20Miami MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardTommy Paul6-7 7-6 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Paul T.Alcaraz C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
57%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paul T.Alcaraz C.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
92
97
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Slight edge
88
98
Deciding sets·Even
98
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
88
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Paul T.14%
Alcaraz C.86%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Alcaraz C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paul T.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Alcaraz C.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Hard Elo 1881
Surface ELO
7.6+207 Hard Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1948
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 2162
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paul T.Alcaraz C.
Freshness·Slight edge
57
68

Paul T.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 116 games (7d) · Alcaraz C.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 69%

Draw