Alexander Bublik vs Francisco CerundoloVienna Round of 16

Vienna · ATP · Round of 16
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 October 2025
hard
#21ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Bublik A.
6-4 6-2
Cerundolo F.
Bublik A.
662
Cerundolo F.
420

Alexander Bublik defeated Francisco Cerundolo 6-4 6-2 in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Francisco Cerundolo came in leading the head-to-head 1–0. Alexander Bublik claimed a first win over Francisco Cerundolo in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardFrancisco Cerundolo7-6(1) 6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Cerundolo F.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Cerundolo F.
65
Serve
13
25
Return
67

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.9
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
88
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Clear edge
67
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
94
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1837
Surface ELO
5.2+43 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1931
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.6
Surface form
5.4
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
70
97

Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
10°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 61%