Martin Damm vs Alex De Minaur — s Hertogenbosch Round of 16

s Hertogenbosch · ATP · Round of 16

USAQ

Martin Damm

#114ATP

1697ELO

1656Grass ELO

$269kYTD

$841kCAREER

22 yrs · 203 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WWWLLWLLWW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 14:00

grass

CENTRE COURT · 3rd on

AUS

Alex De Minaur

#6ATP

1979ELO

1825Grass ELO

$2.0MYTD

$25MCAREER

27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWWLLLW

Around the match

“I'm extremely happy to be back. Of course I have wonderful memories of this tournament, which has always been good for me. I see that new spaces have been added and there's more room for the players, which is very nice. The peace here, I love that. It's relaxed and everything runs smoothly. I've also had to do my best not to eat stroopwafels, haha.”
De Minaur A.libema-open.nl ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Martin Damm faces Alex De Minaur in the s Hertogenbosch round of 16 on grass. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #6, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Martin Damm rides a 3-match win streak.

Key context

Fatigue load: Martin Damm carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Martin Damm arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC

Damm M.20%

De Minaur A.80%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Minaur A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Damm M.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

De Minaur A.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

2.9Grass Elo 1656

Surface ELO

7.1+169 Grass Elo edge

1.5Overall Elo 1697

ELO gap

8.5Overall Elo 1978

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.04 of last 6 on grass

Surface form

6.77 of last 10 on grass

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.