Alex De Minaur vs Matteo ArnaldiRome Masters Round of 64

Rome Masters · ATP · Round of 64
#6ATP
1961ELO
1869Clay ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 8 May 2026 ·
clay
#35ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
De Minaur A.
6-4 6-7 4-6
Arnaldi M.
De Minaur A.
6641
Arnaldi M.
4762

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alex De Minaur 4-6 7-6 6-4 in the Rome Masters round of 64 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16, but Matteo Arnaldi had arrived on a 10-match winning run. Matteo Arnaldi claimed a first win over Alex De Minaur in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-15Australian OpenR64hardAlex De Minaur6-3 6-0 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

De Minaur A.Arnaldi M.
Serve
39
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
58%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
95
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
97
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
86
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+39 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Clay Elo 1830
8.1Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.9
Surface form
10.0
0.0
Win streak
10.010-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
3.5
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
Country comfort
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0
2.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
94

De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 74%
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final