Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Final
BLR1
KAZ2
Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina in the US Open final on hard. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 11–9, defending the title. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Around the match
“I keep the same routine. Last couple of months really teach me how to shut down the noise from outside. I'm ready for the fight. I'm ready to do everything to get the win.”
Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗“No complaints. I'm super happy I was able to pull out such tennis. Thank you for the atmosphere. Your respect to me is priceless.”
Sabalenka A.tennismajors.com ↗Rybakina overcame a left ankle injury suffered three weeks ago in Cincinnati to reach the US Open final, displaying her clutch gene with come-from-behind victories including against Gauff in the semifinal.
Umpiry summary — not a quote
Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Sabalenka A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Elena Rybakina grades 100 on serve, Aryna Sabalenka 52 on return.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 11–9, 8–9 on hard. Last met at Miami 2026.
- Last match: Elena Rybakina dropped the opening set before beating Coco Gauff 3–6 6–4 6–4.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
11–9| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Miami | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 3-6 6-3 7-6 |
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2025-11-08 | WTA Finals | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 7-6(0) |
| 2025-11-01 | Riyadh Finals | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Berlin | QF | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6 3-6 7-6 |
| 2024-11-06 | WTA Finals | RR | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2024-11-04 | Riyadh Finals | RR | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid | SF | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 7-5 7-6 |
| 2024-01-01 | Brisbane | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2023-11-03 | WTA Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-10-30 | Cancun Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-10-02 | Beijing | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-6 6-4 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2021-01-06 | Abu Dhabi | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 4-6 6-3 |
| 2019-09-23 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 1-6 6-1 |