Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend — US Open Round of 16

US Open · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 6 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 1st on
Taylor Townsend
USA
Taylor Townsend
#96WTA
1826ELO
1796Hard ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-3
Townsend T.
Sabalenka A.
662
Townsend T.
430

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Taylor Townsend in the Round of 16 at the US Open, advancing with a 6-4, 6-3 victory on hard courts. Sabalenka hit 0 aces and 2 double faults, while converting 44% of break points and winning 4 service breaks. Townsend had 1 ace, 1 double fault, 60% break point conversion, and 3 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “I've been through so much over this year. I had to let all that go and just say, 'Taylor, just go and play.' This is the most free that I've ever been on the court.”

    Townsend T.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I'm feeling it. I said my prayers this morning and I felt it. I said, 'This is mine and I'm going to go for it.'”

    Townsend T.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I love matches like that because it was really challenging. Going through tough challenges and overcoming those challenges, it definitely gives you strength and really strong belief that you can do it.”

    Sabalenka A.sportsnet.ca ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Townsend T.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
5.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Townsend T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
100
51
Break points saved·Clear edge
93
81
Break points won·Dominant
99
31
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
47
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.93%
Townsend T.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Townsend T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+405 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1796
9.9Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.1Overall Elo 1826
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Townsend T.
Freshness·Clear edge
58
75

Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d) · Townsend T.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw