Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda NoskovaUS Open Quarter-final

US Open · WTA · Quarter-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 8 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 1st on
#6WTA
1976ELO
1913Hard ELO
$6.2MYTD
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWLWW
Sabalenka A.
7-6 3-6 7-6
Noskova L.
Sabalenka A.
77372
Noskova L.
61661

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Linda Noskova in the US Open quarterfinals, winning 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. Sabalenka served 10 aces and committed 4 double faults, while converting 22% of break points and securing 2 service breaks. Noskova had 16 aces, 5 double faults, 50% break point conversion, and 3 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • What an incredible player she is. I'm speechless right now because I was pushing myself to the limit, especially in the third set. I honestly thought that was it, that match was over, and probably that's what helped me to feel loose and go after my shots.

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis
  • It would definitely be a dream come true. I feel like I'm already having a great season, so whatever happens, happens.

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis
  • Especially after these matches, when you're so close to getting to another semifinal of a Grand Slam in one year, it reminds you of where you are standing or what position you're in.

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis
  • This kind of tie-breaks under such high pressure definitely boost my confidence and my energy and my motivation. I'm super glad that somehow I made that ace.

    Sabalenka A.tennismajors.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Aryna Sabalenka closed it out in three sets, 7–6 3–6 7–6.

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian WellsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
2023-01-02Adelaide 1FhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
6.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
86
Break points won·Slight edge
99
89
Deciding sets·Even
97
95
Tiebreaks·Even
100
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.79%
Noskova L.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sabalenka A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.6+289 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.4Hard Elo 1913
8.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1976
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
58
48

Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d) · Noskova L.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 116 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 35%

Draw