Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta KostyukBrisbane Final

Brisbane · WTA · Final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-3
Kostyuk M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Kostyuk M.
430

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-3 in the Brisbane final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–0. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 5–0.

Key context

Head to head

40
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-06RomeR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 7-6(8)
2025-04-22MadridQFclayAryna Sabalenka7-6(4) 7-6(7)
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2022-02-14DubaiR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Kostyuk M.
96
Serve
53
39
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
51%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.4
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 90 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
8.3+234 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1968
7.8Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 2057
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.0
Surface form
6.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Country comfort
5.6
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
69

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostyuk M.[16]
6-46-3