Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk — Rome Round of 16

Rome · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 6 May 2025
clay
Marta Kostyuk
UKR
Marta Kostyuk
#13WTA
2057ELO
1992Clay ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-1 7-6
Kostyuk M.
Sabalenka A.
67102
Kostyuk M.
1680

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-1 7-6 in the Rome round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 5–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Aryna Sabalenka came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

4–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2025-04-22MadridQFclayAryna Sabalenka7-6(4) 7-6(7)
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2022-02-14DubaiR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Sabalenka A.Kostyuk M.
—
Serve
61
—
Return
100

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Kostyuk M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
46%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (90 vs 62). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Kostyuk M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Kostyuk M.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+111 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Clay Elo 1992
7.8Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 2057
10.0
H2H
0.0
9.4
Surface form
7.5
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.5
Minutes 14d
4.7
7.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Kostyuk M.
Freshness·Clear edge
86
65

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
19°CRain
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw

Final
Paolini J.[6]
Gauff C.[4]
6-46-2
Semi-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Zheng Q.[8]
7-634-67-64
Paolini J.[6]
Stearns P.
7-56-1
Quarter-finals
Zheng Q.[8]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-46-3
Paolini J.[6]
Shnaider D.[13]
6-716-46-2
Stearns P.
Svitolina E.[16]
6-24-67-64
Gauff C.[4]
Andreeva M.[7]
6-47-65
R16
Gauff C.[4]
Raducanu E.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostyuk M.
6-17-68
Paolini J.[6]
Ostapenko J.[17]
7-56-2
Svitolina E.[16]
Collins D.[29]
6-46-2
Zheng Q.[8]
Andreescu B.
7-56-1
Andreeva M.[7]
Tauson C.[22]
5-76-36-2
Stearns P.
Osaka N.
6-43-67-64
Shnaider D.[13]
Mertens E.[25]
6-26-3
R32
Ostapenko J.[17]
Siegemund L.
W/O
Andreescu B.
Rybakina E.[11]
6-26-4
Andreeva M.[7]
Noskova L.[30]
6-17-5
Paolini J.[6]
Jabeur O.[27]
6-46-3
Shnaider D.[13]
Cristian J.
6-36-3
Osaka N.
Bouzkova M.
4-66-36-3
Svitolina E.[16]
Baptiste H.
6-43-66-4
Kostyuk M.
Fernandez L.[24]
6-46-2
Raducanu E.
Kudermetova V.
5-76-06-1
Stearns P.
Keys M.[5]
2-66-27-63
Gauff C.[4]
Linette M.[32]
7-56-3
Tauson C.[22]
Navarro E.[10]
3-66-06-4
Collins D.[29]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-17-5
Zheng Q.[8]
Frech M.[26]
6-36-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kenin S.[31]
3-66-36-3
Mertens E.[25]
Pegula J.[3]
7-56-1
R64
Andreescu B.
Vekic D.[20]
6-13-66-2
Raducanu E.
Teichmann J.
6-26-2
Paolini J.[6]
Sun L.
6-46-3
Jabeur O.[27]
Kvitova P.
W/O
Kenin S.[31]
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-36-0
Tauson C.[22]
Volynets K.
7-54-1
Cristian J.
Putintseva Y.[23]
7-627-5
Rybakina E.[11]
Lys E.
7-636-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Potapova A.
6-26-2
Shnaider D.[13]
Dolehide C.
6-06-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Cocciaretto E.
6-16-0
Mertens E.[25]
Lamens S.
3-66-26-3
Ostapenko J.[17]
Sramkova R.
1-66-46-3
Andreeva M.[7]
Arango E.
6-26-4
Zheng Q.[8]
Danilovic O.
6-16-4
Collins D.[29]
Ruse E.
6-36-3
Kudermetova V.
Anisimova A.[15]
7-657-5
Siegemund L.
Bronzetti L.
6-26-2
Navarro E.[10]
Rakhimova K.
6-16-3
Linette M.[32]
Sakkari M.
1-66-46-1
Kostyuk M.
Kasatkina D.[14]
6-46-2
Fernandez L.[24]
Ruzic A.
6-46-0
Frech M.[26]
Azarenka V.
7-56-4
Gauff C.[4]
Mboko V.
3-66-26-1
Noskova L.[30]
Kartal S.
6-46-2
Pegula J.[3]
Krueger A.
6-46-2
Keys M.[5]
Gracheva V.
7-646-1
Bouzkova M.
Haddad Maia B.[18]
6-06-3
Osaka N.
Golubic V.
2-67-56-1
Svitolina E.[16]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-47-62
Baptiste H.
Samsonova L.[19]
6-32-66-4
Stearns P.
Kalinskaya A.[28]
6-26-3
R128
Cocciaretto E.
Avanesyan E.
6-24-66-1
Sakkari M.
Bencic B.
6-20-0
Bouzkova M.
Sherif M.
6-27-5
Kostyuk M.
Eala A.
6-06-1
Azarenka V.
Osorio C.
6-26-3
Danilovic O.
Siniakova K.
3-66-46-4
Kudermetova V.
Stefanini L.
7-56-2
Sramkova R.
Kessler M.
6-36-3
Lys E.
Uchijima M.
6-16-0
Potapova A.
Yastremska D.
2-67-666-3
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Li A.
6-35-77-63
Baptiste H.
Blinkova A.
7-676-4
Sun L.
Pedone G.
3-66-16-3
Mboko V.
Zucchini A.
6-26-3
Andreescu B.
Urgesi F.
6-06-3
Kvitova P.
Begu I.
7-56-1
Ruzic A.
Grant T.
3-66-37-5
Stearns P.
Brancaccio N.
6-36-2
Osaka N.
Errani S.
6-26-3
Ruse E.
Kudermetova P.
6-7106-46-2
Kartal S.
Birrell K.
4-66-36-4
Lamens S.
Zarazua R.
6-11-66-1
Bronzetti L.
Sevastova A.
6-36-4
Pavlyuchenkova A.
Boulter K.
6-36-3
Raducanu E.
Joint M.
7-56-716-3
Rakhimova K.
Wang X.
6-36-2
Volynets K.
Rus A.
6-36-3
Arango E.
Tomova V.
7-665-76-4
Dolehide C.
Gadecki O.
7-655-76-2
Cristian J.
Parks A.
6-26-0
Krueger A.
Bondar A.
4-66-26-1
Gracheva V.
Tomljanovic A.
6-36-4