Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta KostyukDubai Round of 32

Dubai · WTA · Round of 32
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 14 February 2022
hard
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-1
Kostyuk M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Kostyuk M.
410

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-1 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 5–0.

Key context

Head to head

40
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2025-05-06RomeR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 7-6(8)
2025-04-22MadridQFclayAryna Sabalenka7-6(4) 7-6(7)
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Kostyuk M.
96
Serve
53
39
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
8.3+234 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1968
7.8Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 2057
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
5.6
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
77

Sabalenka A.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kostyuk M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 44%