Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova — Wimbledon Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Final
Karolina Muchova
CZE10
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
grass
Linda Noskova
CZE9
Linda Noskova
#12WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$5.9MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
Muchova K.
vs
Noskova L.

Karolina Muchova faces Linda Noskova in the Wimbledon final on grass. Karolina Muchova holds the paper edge — ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Muchova K.55%
Noskova L.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muchova K.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Noskova L.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+7 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Grass Elo 1844
6.1Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1976
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
10.010-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.2Won 70% in GBR (23)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Heat performance
8.5Excels in hot weather

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Muchova K.Stable
Noskova L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Muchova K.Noskova L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.2
7.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.1
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Noskova L.

Noskova L.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Muchova K.Noskova L.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
94
88
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Even
94
92
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Muchova K.Noskova L.
Freshness·Even
62
60

Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Noskova L.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 101 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 26%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR32hardKarolina Muchova6-7(5) 6-4 6-2
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[14]
2-66-72
Muchova K.[10]
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.[11]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
4-64-6
Paolini J.[13]
Eala A.[29]
6-44-66-3
Keys M.[26]
Noskova L.[9]
4-66-72
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
4-64-6
Osaka N.[14]
Muchova K.[10]
6-744-6
Pegula J.[4]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-63-6
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.[13]
6-36-2
Noskova L.[9]
Mertens E.[25]
6-37-5
Muchova K.[10]
Gauff C.[7]
6-21-67-610
Kostyuk M.[12]
Noskova L.[9]
4-64-6
Muchova K.
Noskova L.