Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Ann Li
USA28
Ann Li
#31WTA
1807ELO
1746Hard ELO
$837kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWLLLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLWLWL
Li A.
vs
Rybakina E.

Ann Li faces Elena Rybakina in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #2, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Li A.15%
Rybakina E.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Elena Rybakina has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 99 vs 44).
  • Fatigue load: Elena Rybakina carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
16 common opponents · Li A. 13–9 · Rybakina E. 29–5
Rybakina E. better · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Li A.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.4Hard Elo 1746
Surface ELO
9.6+364 Hard Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1806
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 2122
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.33 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

35 vs 45 matches

Statistics

This season
Li A.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.3
6.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 45). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Li A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Li A.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Li A.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
44
99
Break points saved·Dominant
26
95
Break points won·Clear edge
80
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
72
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
27
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Li A.Rybakina E.
Freshness·
96
—

Li A.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw