Liudmila Samsonova vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Round of 16
KAZ2
Samsonova L.
Liudmila Samsonova faces Elena Rybakina in the Toronto round of 16 on hard. Elena Rybakina is the paper favourite — ranked #2, a roughly 390-point hard Elo advantage — but Liudmila Samsonova has won 4 of their 6 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Liudmila Samsonova 141 games in 14 days, Elena Rybakina 51.
- Under pressure: Elena Rybakina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 99 vs Liudmila Samsonova's 61).
- Head-to-head: Liudmila Samsonova leads the head-to-head 4–2, 4–1 on hard. Last met at Strasbourg 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 45). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSamsonova L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
4–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Strasbourg | F | clay | Elena Rybakina | 6-1 6-7 6-1 |
| 2024-02-05 | Abu Dhabi | SF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-0 4-6 6-2 |
| 2023-10-02 | Beijing | SF | hard | Liudmila Samsonova | 7-6 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Montreal | SF | hard | Liudmila Samsonova | 1-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2022-09-19 | Tokyo | R32 | hard | Liudmila Samsonova | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2021-08-09 | Montreal | R64 | hard | Liudmila Samsonova | 6-4 5-7 6-4 |