Elena Rybakina vs Marta Kostyuk — Indian Wells Round of 32

Indian Wells · WTA · Round of 32
Elena Rybakina
KAZ3
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
Marta Kostyuk
UKR28
Marta Kostyuk
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Rybakina E.
6-4 6-4
Kostyuk M.
Rybakina E.
662
Kostyuk M.
440

Elena Rybakina defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-4 in the Indian Wells round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's round of 16. Elena Rybakina extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Elena Rybakina edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

4–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardElena Rybakina6-3 6-4
2025-07-27MontrealQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 2-1 RET
2024-04-15StuttgartFclayElena Rybakina6-2 6-2
2023-08-28US OpenR128hardElena Rybakina6-2 6-1
2023-01-02Adelaide 1R16hardMarta Kostyuk6-7(5) 6-2 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve advantage — Kostyuk M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Kostyuk M.
100
Serve
53
34
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rybakina E.Kostyuk M.
1st serve in·Even
60%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
51%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.1
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rybakina E.Kostyuk M.
Clutch Rating·Even
92
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Even
96
98
Deciding sets·Even
98
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rybakina E.
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Kostyuk M.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
7.3+143 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Hard Elo 1968
6.9Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 2057
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.6
Surface form
5.9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
6.1
Country comfort
5.3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rybakina E.Kostyuk M.
Freshness·Clear edge
89
65

Rybakina E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Rybakina E.[3]
3-66-37-66
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Noskova L.[14]
6-36-4
Rybakina E.[3]
Svitolina E.[9]
7-56-4
Quarter-finals
Rybakina E.[3]
Pegula J.[5]
6-17-64
Sabalenka A.[1]
Mboko V.[10]
7-606-4
Svitolina E.[9]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-24-66-4
Noskova L.[14]
Gibson T.
6-24-66-2
R16
Svitolina E.[9]
Siniakova K.
6-11-1
Rybakina E.[3]
Kartal S.
6-44-3
Noskova L.[14]
Eala A.[31]
6-26-0
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[16]
6-26-4
Pegula J.[5]
Bencic B.[12]
6-37-65
Gibson T.
Paolini J.[7]
7-52-66-1
Mboko V.[10]
Anisimova A.[6]
6-46-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Muchova K.[13]
6-26-0
R32
Eala A.[31]
Gauff C.[4]
6-22-0
Pegula J.[5]
Ostapenko J.[26]
4-66-36-2
Osaka N.[16]
Osorio C.
6-13-66-1
Anisimova A.[6]
Raducanu E.[25]
6-16-1
Muchova K.[13]
Ruzic A.
6-06-3
Rybakina E.[3]
Kostyuk M.[28]
6-46-4
Bencic B.[12]
Mertens E.[22]
6-26-3
Gibson T.
Tauson C.[17]
7-624-66-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Sakkari M.[32]
6-36-2
Kartal S.
Keys M.[15]
2-66-26-3
Svitolina E.[9]
Krueger A.
6-46-2
Mboko V.[10]
Kalinskaya A.[23]
6-46-1
Siniakova K.
Andreeva M.[8]
4-67-656-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Cristian J.
6-46-1
Paolini J.[7]
Tomljanovic A.
7-55-76-1
Noskova L.[14]
Cirstea S.
6-756-46-4
R64
Siniakova K.
Fernandez L.[27]
5-76-47-61
Gauff C.[4]
Rakhimova K.
6-37-65
Muchova K.[13]
Bondar A.
7-56-2
Bencic B.[12]
Hunter S.
6-36-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Day K.
6-07-62
Osorio C.
Jovic I.[18]
4-67-646-3
Noskova L.[14]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-36-3
Keys M.[15]
Parry D.
6-46-3
Raducanu E.[25]
Zakharova A.
6-16-3
Kartal S.
Navarro E.[20]
6-13-67-62
Tomljanovic A.
Wang X.[30]
6-36-1
Kostyuk M.[28]
Townsend T.
6-36-2
Paolini J.[7]
Potapova A.
6-756-26-3
Sakkari M.[32]
Tagger L.
7-56-0
Ostapenko J.[26]
Volynets K.
6-47-65
Ruzic A.
Zheng Q.[24]
6-47-5
Cirstea S.
Shnaider D.[21]
6-27-60
Mboko V.[10]
Birrell K.
6-47-65
Gibson T.
Alexandrova E.[11]
6-37-5
Mertens E.[22]
Bucsa C.
6-26-1
Andreeva M.[8]
Sierra S.
6-06-0
Cristian J.
Joint M.[29]
0-66-27-5
Eala A.[31]
Yastremska D.
7-54-67-5
Anisimova A.[6]
Blinkova A.
5-76-16-0
Rybakina E.[3]
Baptiste H.
7-652-66-2
Osaka N.[16]
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
7-56-2
Svitolina E.[9]
Siegemund L.
7-654-66-3
Krueger A.
Samsonova L.[19]
3-67-56-2
Kalinskaya A.[23]
Sonmez Z.
6-47-64
Pegula J.[5]
Vekic D.
4-66-26-3
Tauson C.[17]
Putintseva Y.
7-696-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Sakatsume H.
6-46-2
R128
Volynets K.
Sramkova R.
6-10-0
Vekic D.
Valentova T.
7-647-64
Cirstea S.
Maria T.
6-44-66-3
Osorio C.
Stephens S.
6-46-1
Siegemund L.
Marcinko P.
3-66-36-4
Zakharova A.
Seidel E.
6-26-2
Bucsa C.
Vidmanova D.
6-46-0
Kartal S.
Tararudee L.
6-46-4
Gibson T.
Li A.
6-37-5
Day K.
Jones F.
6-36-1
Tagger L.
Gracheva V.
6-26-4
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Haddad Maia B.
6-16-756-1
Townsend T.
Bouzkova M.
6-26-1
Tomljanovic A.
Ruse E.
7-56-2
Parry D.
Williams V.
6-36-746-1
Baptiste H.
Arango E.
2-66-26-3
Sonmez Z.
Kessler M.
7-676-0
Sierra S.
Stearns P.
7-57-5
Sakatsume H.
Parks A.
6-46-3
Rakhimova K.
Andreescu B.
6-766-06-1
Putintseva Y.
Badosa P.
6-46-2
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Mcnally C.
6-26-746-4
Cristian J.
Tjen J.
4-66-47-66
Bondar A.
Jacquemot E.
7-657-5
Siniakova K.
Kenin S.
1-66-46-1
Potapova A.
Stakusic M.
4-66-17-5
Ruzic A.
Brady J.
3-66-46-2
Birrell K.
Selekhmeteva O.
6-16-4
Blinkova A.
Galfi D.
6-47-5
Krueger A.
Linette M.
6-16-4
Yastremska D.
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Hunter S.
Frech M.
3-67-56-3