Marta Kostyuk vs Elena RybakinaAdelaide 1 Round of 16

Adelaide 1 · WTA · Round of 16
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 2 January 2023
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Kostyuk M.
6-7 6-2 6-3
Rybakina E.
Kostyuk M.
65662
Rybakina E.
77231

Marta Kostyuk defeated Elena Rybakina 6-7 6-2 6-3 in the Adelaide 1 round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 5–0, defending last year's final. Marta Kostyuk claimed a first win over Elena Rybakina in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

05
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardElena Rybakina6-3 6-4
2026-03-04Indian WellsR32hardElena Rybakina6-4 6-4
2025-07-27MontrealQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 2-1 RET
2024-04-15StuttgartFclayElena Rybakina6-2 6-2
2023-08-28US OpenR128hardElena Rybakina6-2 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Kostyuk M.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kostyuk M.Rybakina E.
53
Serve
100
57
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
63%
Return points won·Even
46%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
6.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (163 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Even
98
96
Deciding sets·Even
98
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 51 days (−0.7)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 54 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1968
Surface ELO
7.3+143 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 2122
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
5.7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
65
89

Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast