Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Quarter-final

Toronto · WTA · Quarter-final
Naomi Osaka
JPN11
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLLWL
Osaka N.
6-4 6-7 4-6
Rybakina E.
Osaka N.
66541
Rybakina E.
47762

Elena Rybakina defeated Naomi Osaka in the Toronto quarterfinals, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Rybakina hit 15 aces to Osaka's 3 and had a 75% first-serve win percentage, compared to Osaka's 64%. Both players converted 50% and 43% of their break points, respectively, and each had three service breaks.

Around the match

  • “Coming back after pregnancy, I was really eager to play the best players, and now I'm able to play them and go toe-to-toe. So I'm just really happy about that.”

    Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “Even losing 3-0 in the third, I managed to win. It was a bit unlucky in the first few games because of the net cord, but I knew if I'm going to fight, I can try to turn it around.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

  • Rybakina advances to the semifinals after Bencic's withdrawal and will face Osaka on Stadium Court.

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

  • Osaka advances to the semifinals after Bencic's withdrawal and will face Rybakina on Stadium Court.

    Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Even
5.8
6.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
87
99
Break points saved·Slight edge
85
96
Break points won·Even
98
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
86
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Osaka N.35%
Rybakina E.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rybakina E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osaka N.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1922
Surface ELO
7.4+188 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 2122
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Even
57
53

Osaka N.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 86 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 114 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw