Naomi Osaka vs Alexandra Eala — Washington Semi-final
Washington · WTA · Semi-final
JPN3#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
#28WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLLW
Osaka N.vs
Eala A.
Naomi Osaka faces Alexandra Eala in the Washington semi-final on hard. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #13, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTCOsaka N.67%
Eala A.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Naomi Osaka brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 74), Alexandra Eala the stronger return game (Return Rating 51).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Naomi Osaka 13 games in 14 days, Alexandra Eala 48.
- Last match: Naomi Osaka dropped the opening set before beating Elisabetta Cocciaretto 4–6 6–4 6–3.
Common opponents
Last 12 months18 common opponents · Osaka N. 16–5 · Eala A. 13–12
Osaka N. better · same surface · ⚠ retirement-shortened match▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
27 vs 40 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.6
1.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Osaka N.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
33°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 33%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.