Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina — Berlin Round of 16
Eala A.
Alexandra Eala faces Elena Rybakina in the Berlin round of 16 on grass. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alexandra Eala comes in with 7 days of rest and 130 games in 14d, vs Elena Rybakina's 5 and 61.
- Serve & return: Elena Rybakina brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 100), Alexandra Eala the stronger return game (Return Rating 68).
- Last match: Alexandra Eala edged Donna Vekic in two tight sets (7–5 6–4).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadEala A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Rome | R32 | clay | Elena Rybakina | 4-6 3-6 |