Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena RybakinaUS Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64
#105WTA
1721ELO
1664Hard ELO
$391kYTD
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
Bouzas Maneiro J.
2-6 4-6
Rybakina E.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
240
Rybakina E.
662

Elena Rybakina defeated Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Round of 64 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 6-4 in favor of Rybakina. Rybakina hit 7 aces and 4 double faults, converted 67% of break points, and made 4 service breaks, compared to Bouzas Maneiro's 0 aces, 0 double faults, 50% break point conversion, and 1 service break.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • It was strange. She hit the ball amazingly well. Was kind of not moving for balls. I think she is hurt.

    Rybakina E.Tennishead

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-27United CupRRhardElena Rybakina6-2 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
60%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
50%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
6.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
18
99
Break points saved·Dominant
4
96
Break points won·Even
93
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
24
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Bouzas Maneiro J.8%
Rybakina E.92%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
8.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1664
Surface ELO
10.0+446 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1721
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2122
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
4.64 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
90
74

Bouzas Maneiro J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw